Here’s a calculator that could change behavior and save lives

Ready to roll the dice and play?

Find the odds of your infection! Select your county, size of gathering, and choose first the lower 5x- then the higher 10x-ascertainment bias. That will give you a low-to-high risk spread.

This week, if I attend an event near me with 10 people in attendance, on the low side (5x) odds are 45% of us will get infected.
If 15 people show up at the event, our infection risk goes up to 59%.
I don’t really know how widespread testing is in Ozaukee County, so let’s look at higher-end risk. For a 10-person gathering the higher risk is 71%.
For events at which 15 attend, this week in Ozaukee County, as many as 84% may get COVID-19.

Heard of herd immunity? Here are some risk calculations with that

Many of my neighbors trust there’s a good chance the infection will be mild and listen to non-mainstream sources promoting “herd immunity.” Let’s factor in some risk issues that herd immunity proponents never mention.

This is NOT a hoax, or the flu, folks

Now is most definitely not the time to rely on “herd immunity” to protect you and your family. Ozaukee County and the US is nowhere near “herd immunity” level of 60% needed to be “safe.” The fact is — we don’t actually know, as there’s been virtually no investment in testing and tracking of blood immunity levels.

  • Stay home and avoid all gatherings of people indoors
  • Shop fast, and at “off hours”
  • Do not chat with people while in the store — even masked
  • Cover both nose and mouth with a mask (Seen in Sendik’s last week: two women, NO masks, leaning over fresh fruit, talking. Easy to visualize germs being spread and settling on food.)
  • Stay away — 6 feet or more — from others
  • Wash hands with care — 2 minutes with soap and water — frequently
  • Wash food, throw away disposable masks, and wash cloth masks after touching them (leave outside until washed).

Be an early bird

We’ve gone back to shopping in the first hour stores open. It’s really pleasant! Everything is cleanest, air is still, with fewest numbers of shoppers in the store. Monday morning at 7:15 there were only about 15 cars in the lot at Sendik’s.

Hang in there and prayers of thanks help

Let us offer a flood of prayers of thanks and appreciation for all the good in the world, and for the wise, caring, helpful, cooperative people who pull together to help each other stay safe, who understand what it means to #flattenthecurve—with extra prayers for our dedicated high-risk-taking health caregivers on the front lines saving lives and being there for our loved ones in their final moments. Please pray for them. They are exhausted, and deeply disturbed. Witnessing death daily takes its toll. Especially when the people they are caring for and families believe this virus is a hoax. Some are even developing PTSD. They are #healthcareheroes! (Here are some more ideas to thank them.) I also pray for those who have been mislead to think this is a hoax. May God bless them, and open their eyes. God bless us all.



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Laurel Kashinn

Laurel Kashinn


Laurel Kashinn is a Certified Ghostwriter, Professional Résumé Writer, doTERRA Wellness Advocate, and Orthodox Christian living and writing in Milwaukee, Wisc.